{"id":4816,"date":"2023-01-25T18:06:54","date_gmt":"2023-01-25T17:06:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/2024.globalinvestsummit.com\/?p=4816"},"modified":"2023-01-25T18:06:54","modified_gmt":"2023-01-25T17:06:54","slug":"investovani-v-dobe-recese","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/2024.globalinvestsummit.com\/cs\/investovani-v-dobe-recese\/","title":{"rendered":"Vladim\u00edr Pikora: Investov\u00e1n\u00ed v dob\u011b recese \u2013 \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm jsou dluhopisy a zlato"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><div data-vc-full-width=\"true\" data-vc-full-width-init=\"false\" class=\"vc_row wpb_row vc_row-fluid\"><div class=\"wpb_column vc_column_container vc_col-sm-12\"><div class=\"vc_column-inner \"><div class=\"wpb_wrapper\">\n\t<div class=\"wpb_text_column wpb_content_element \" >\n\t\t<div class=\"wpb_wrapper\">\n\t\t\t<p><strong>Rok 2023 bude hodn\u011b specifick\u00fd. Do ekonomiky vkro\u010d\u00ed op\u011bt recese. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed lid\u00e9 se dokonce boj\u00ed, \u017ee se bude jednat o recesi glob\u00e1ln\u00ed. To u\u017e tu dlouho nebylo. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 s\u00a0t\u00edm z\u016fstane vysok\u00e1 inflace. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00darokov\u00e9 sazby kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank sv\u011bta budou d\u00e1le r\u016fst, a\u010dkoli se u\u017e budou bl\u00ed\u017eit sv\u00e9mu vrcholu. Pro centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky to bude slo\u017eit\u00fd okam\u017eik. Na jednu stranu by m\u011bly zvedat sv\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, aby udusily inflaci, na druhou stranu nebudou cht\u00edt zvy\u0161ovat sazby, proto\u017ee by t\u00edm jen prodlou\u017eily recesy. A tak se v\u00a0tom budou pl\u00e1cat sem a tam a investice budou v\u00edce nejist\u00e9 ne\u017e obvykle.<\/p>\n<p>Nav\u00edc se k\u00a0tomu p\u0159id\u00e1 v\u00fdvoj ve sv\u011bt\u011b. Mnoho lid\u00ed si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee brzo p\u0159ijde konec v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b, proto\u017ee Z\u00e1pad utlu\u010de Rusko sankcemi a dod\u00e1vkami zbran\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b. Jen\u017ee to je dost nejist\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. Rusko je velk\u00e1 ekonomika a je zvykl\u00e1 str\u00e1dat. Ukrajina m\u016f\u017ee dopadnout jako Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee se Rusko nakonec st\u00e1hne, ale bude to trvat dlouho. To je podle m\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 ne\u017e sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, \u017ee v\u00a0roce 2023 skon\u010d\u00ed v\u00e1lka.<\/p>\n<p>Akcie by na takovou situaci nem\u011bly reagovat r\u016fstem, a\u010dkoli jsme ho v\u00a0prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b ledna vid\u011bli. Akcie by podle m\u011b m\u011bly za\u010d\u00edt r\u016fst a\u017e ve chv\u00edli, kdy bude vid\u011bt sv\u011btlo na konci tunelu. O trochu by tak p\u0159ede\u0161ly hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd cyklus, ale jejich r\u016fst by byl podlo\u017een racion\u00e1ln\u00edmi o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edmi. To dnes nejsou. Dnes rostou akcie jen na z\u00e1klad\u011b zpr\u00e1vy americk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, \u017ee p\u0159ibrzd\u00ed r\u016fst \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. To je podle m\u011b m\u00e1lo.<\/p>\n<p>Rok 2023 by m\u011bl b\u00fdt zaj\u00edmav\u00fd pro zlato. M\u011bla by mu nahr\u00e1vat skute\u010dnost, \u017ee geopolitick\u00e1 situace ve sv\u011bt\u011b je velmi nejist\u00e1 a nep\u0159ehledn\u00e1. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky proto nakupuj\u00ed nejv\u00edce zlata od roku 1967. Pochopiteln\u011b i drobn\u00ed st\u0159adatel\u00e9 ve velk\u00e9m nakupuj\u00ed zlato. Fakt, \u017ee je zlato bezpe\u010dn\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstavem, jsme vid\u011bli, kdy\u017e Rusov\u00e9 za\u00fato\u010dili na Ukrajinu. Akcie i kryptom\u011bny \u0161ly dol\u016f. Naopak zlato vyl\u00e9tlo nad 2000 dolar\u016f za unci, co\u017e byl druh\u00fd nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed kurz v d\u011bjin\u00e1ch. J\u00e1 bych se nedivil, kdyby letos zlato op\u011bt vysko\u010dilo nad 2000 dolar\u016f za unci.<\/p>\n<p>Rok 2023 nahr\u00e1v\u00e1 i korpor\u00e1tn\u00edm dluhopis\u016fm. Ty odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed posledn\u00ed r\u016fst \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Jejich v\u00fdnosy vzrostly nad hodnoty b\u011b\u017en\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00e9. Korpor\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopis s\u00a0v\u00fdnosem nad 11 % u\u017e nen\u00ed v\u00fdjimkou. Vezmu-li v\u00a0\u00favahu, \u017ee se \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka netv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee by letos zvy\u0161ovala sv\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby a sp\u00ed\u0161 je zde prostor pro pokles sazeb v\u00a0roce 2024, p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed dluhopisy p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost zamknout si nestandardn\u011b vysok\u00fd v\u00fdnos i pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed roky. Hodn\u011b lid\u00ed k\u00a0nim proto nyn\u00ed ut\u00edk\u00e1. Pochopiteln\u011b \u010d\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnos, t\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed riziko. To se d\u00e1 ale limitovat, pokud je dluhopis zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd. Zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd dluhopis s\u00a0v\u00fdnosem nad 11 % zn\u00ed podle m\u011b velmi atraktivn\u011b. J\u00e1 osobn\u011b proto bude letos nejv\u00edce sledovat v\u00fdvoj cen zlata a dluhopis\u016f.<\/p>\n<p>Znovu v\u00e1s na mou p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161ku k\u00a0tomuto t\u00e9matu na stage 2 s\u00a0n\u00e1zvem \u201e<em>Jak investovat v dob\u011b recese. \u0158e\u0161en\u00edm jsou dluhopisy a zlato<\/em>.\u201c<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Vladim\u00edr Pikora hlavn\u00ed ekonom investi\u010dn\u00ed skupiny CFG a Dluhopisomatu, <\/em><\/strong><strong><em>vladimir.pikora@comfortfinancegroup.com<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vc_row-full-width vc_clearfix\"><\/div>\n<\/section>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Rok 2023 bude hodn\u011b specifick\u00fd. Do ekonomiky vkro\u010d\u00ed op\u011bt recese. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed lid\u00e9 se dokonce boj\u00ed, \u017ee se bude jednat o recesi glob\u00e1ln\u00ed. To u\u017e tu dlouho nebylo. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 s\u00a0t\u00edm z\u016fstane vysok\u00e1 inflace. \u00darokov\u00e9 sazby kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank sv\u011bta budou d\u00e1le r\u016fst, a\u010dkoli se u\u017e budou bl\u00ed\u017eit sv\u00e9mu vrcholu. Pro centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky to bude slo\u017eit\u00fd okam\u017eik. 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